NFL player futures on Kalshi
The value case behind the season-long award markets. We turn live Kalshi prices into implied odds and find the contenders the market is underrating, refreshed daily through kickoff.
Kalshi market
NFL MVP
Josh Allen is the NFL MVP favorite at 9.2% implied on Kalshi. Here is why the reigning winner is underpriced against Lamar Jackson, Herbert and Burrow.
Joe Burrow is priced at 8.3% to win NFL MVP on Kalshi. Why the market is underrating the league's most efficient passer and the case that he is undervalued.
Lamar Jackson is priced at 8.3% for NFL MVP on Kalshi, tied for second behind Josh Allen. Here is why a two-time winner is undervalued this season.
Justin Herbert is priced at 8% for NFL MVP on Kalshi, fourth in the field. Here's the efficiency-and-rushing case the market is quietly underrating.
Patrick Mahomes sits at 5.7% for NFL MVP on Kalshi, behind four passers. Here is why the market is underpricing the game's floor-raiser, and where the value is.
Dak Prescott sits at 5.6% implied to win NFL MVP on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating the Cowboys quarterback and where the real value lives.
Matthew Stafford's NFL MVP odds sit at 5.6% on Kalshi. Here is the market-vs-narrative case for why that price undersells the Rams' quarterback.
Drake Maye is priced at 5.6% to win NFL MVP on Kalshi, level with Mahomes and Stafford. Here is why the market is underrating the Patriots' third-year QB.
Caleb Williams is priced at 5.2% for NFL MVP on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating the Bears QB in year two of Ben Johnson's offense.
Brock Purdy is priced at just 3.9% for NFL MVP on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating the 49ers quarterback, and where the real value sits.
Jayden Daniels is priced at 3.1% for NFL MVP on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating the Commanders QB, and where the real value sits.
Trevor Lawrence is priced at 3% for NFL MVP on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating his Year 2 fit in Liam Coen's offense, and where the value sits.
Kalshi market
NFL passing yards leader
Jared Goff sits at 11.4% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season passing yards crown. Here is why that price is closer to fair than the market thinks.
Joe Burrow is priced at 10.6% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season passing yards crown. Here is why the reigning yardage king is undervalued at that number.
Dak Prescott sits at 9.4% on Kalshi to win the NFL passing yards crown. Why the market is underrating a high-volume Cowboys offense built to throw.
Caleb Williams sits at 5.5% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season passing yards crown. Why Ben Johnson's scheme makes that price too cheap.
Justin Herbert is priced at 5% to win the NFL regular-season passing yards crown on Kalshi. Here is why the market is a touch too low on the Chargers arm.
Cam Ward sits at 5% on Kalshi to win the NFL passing yards crown. Why the market underrates the Titans QB's clear path to league-leading volume.
Matthew Stafford is priced at just 4.7% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season passing yards crown. Here is why that number is too low for the field he faces.
Drake Maye's NFL passing yards crown odds are 4.7% on Kalshi. Here's why the market may underrate the Patriots QB's 2026 volume ceiling in a flat field.
Daniel Jones is 4.6% on Kalshi to win the NFL passing yards crown. Why the market's flat field undervalues his volume profile in Indianapolis.
Aaron Rodgers is priced at 4.6% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season passing yards crown. We read the value in a wide-open field and find an edge.
Geno Smith sits at 4.5% on Kalshi to win the NFL passing yards crown. Here's the volume case for why the Raiders QB is undervalued versus the field.
Josh Allen is priced at just 4.2% on Kalshi to win the 2025 NFL passing yards crown. Here is why that longshot number underrates his durability and shootout ceiling.
Tyler Shough sits at 4% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season passing yards crown. Here is why a wide-open, flat market is underrating the Saints rookie's volume.
Shedeur Sanders is priced at 3.8% on Kalshi to win the NFL passing yards crown. Why the market may be underrating a volume-and-game-script play in Cleveland.
Trevor Lawrence sits at just 3.7% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season passing yards crown. Here is why that number underrates Liam Coen's volume machine.
Brock Purdy is priced at just 3.6% to win the NFL regular-season passing yards crown on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating the 49ers quarterback.
Patrick Mahomes sits at just 3.5% on Kalshi to win the NFL passing yards crown. Here is why the market is underrating a two-time yardage champion.
Jordan Love is priced at just 3.3% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season passing yards crown. Here is why that number undersells the Packers passer.
Lamar Jackson sits at 3.1% to win the NFL passing yards crown on Kalshi. Here is why the market underrates Baltimore's vertical passing shift and where the ceiling caps.
Kalshi market
NFL rushing yards leader
Derrick Henry's NFL rushing yards title odds sit at 10.9% on Kalshi, second in the field. Here is why the market is underrating the Ravens' back at that price.
Saquon Barkley sits at 7.9% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season rushing yards title. Here is why the market is pricing a true bell-cow like a committee back.
Bijan Robinson sits at 7.8% on Kalshi to win the NFL rushing yards title. Why the market underrates Atlanta's bell-cow back and where the real value lives.
Kenneth Walker III sits at 7.3% implied on Kalshi to win the NFL rushing title. Why a new zone scheme makes that price too low in a flat, wide-open field.
James Cook III is priced at 7.3% on Kalshi to win the NFL rushing yards title. Here is why Buffalo's volume shift makes the market's number too cautious.
Jonathan Taylor is priced at 6.9% to win the NFL rushing yards title on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating the league's purest bell-cow.
Jahmyr Gibbs is priced at 5.2% to win the NFL rushing yards title on Kalshi. Here is why the committee tax has the market underrating Detroit's home-run back.
Omarion Hampton is priced at 4.3% on Kalshi to win the NFL rushing title. Here is why the Chargers' scheme and volume make that number too low.
De'Von Achane's NFL rushing title odds sit at 3.8% on Kalshi. Here is why the efficiency king is underpriced against a wide-open volume field.
Javonte Williams is priced at just 3.3% to win the NFL rushing yards title on Kalshi. Here is why that number is too low for Dallas's clear lead back.
RJ Harvey's NFL rushing yards title odds sit at 3.1% on Kalshi. Why Denver's rookie back is the sharpest longshot in the field, and where the price is wrong.
Ashton Jeanty sits at 2.5% to win the NFL rushing yards title on Kalshi. Here is why that price undersells a rookie built for a huge volume workload.
Kalshi market
NFL receiving yards leader
Ja'Marr Chase is priced at 12.7% on Kalshi to win the NFL receiving yards title. Why the market's second-place tag undersells the league's best volume bet.
Puka Nacua is priced at 11.3% on Kalshi to win the NFL receiving yards title. Here is why the market is underrating the Rams' volume machine.
Ladd McConkey sits at 7.3% on Kalshi to win the NFL receiving yards title. Here is why the Chargers' target hog is undervalued against Nacua and Chase.
Brock Bowers is priced at 6.3% to win the NFL receiving yards title on Kalshi. Here is why the market may be underrating the Raiders tight end's target monopoly.
CeeDee Lamb is priced at 6.2% to win the NFL receiving yards title on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating the Cowboys' alpha receiver.
Mike Evans is priced at 5.6% on Kalshi to win the NFL receiving yards title. Our market-vs-narrative read on why the volume case is underrated.
Tetairoa McMillan is priced at 5.3% on Kalshi to win the NFL receiving yards title. Here is why the market is underrating Carolina's alpha in year two.
Nico Collins sits at 5.2% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season receiving yards title. Why the market underrates Houston's alpha target, and the value read.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is priced at 4.8% to win the NFL receiving yards title on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating Detroit's target hog.
A.J. Brown is priced at just 4.7% to win the NFL receiving yards title on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating the Eagles' alpha target.
Justin Jefferson is priced at just 4.7% on Kalshi to win the NFL receiving yards title. Here is why the market is underrating the best route-runner alive.
Malik Nabers is priced at just 4.4% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season receiving yards title. Here is why that number underrates the league's most target-hungry receiver.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is priced at 4.3% to win the NFL receiving yards title on Kalshi. Here is why that number is light in a wide-open field.
Drake London is priced at just 3.5% to win the NFL receiving yards title on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating Atlanta's WR1 for this season.
Garrett Wilson sits at 3.5% on Kalshi to win the NFL receiving yards title. Here is why the Jets' alpha target is underpriced against a scattered field.
Tee Higgins is priced at 3.5% to win the NFL receiving yards title on Kalshi. Here is why that number underrates a healthy 17-game Higgins.
Jaylen Waddle's receiving yards title odds sit at 2.8% on Kalshi. Here is the contrarian case that the market is underpricing Miami's WR1-in-waiting.
Zay Flowers is priced at 2.3% to win the NFL receiving yards title on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating Baltimore's WR1 in a leap year.
Kalshi market
NFL sacks leader
Myles Garrett is the clear favorite for the NFL regular-season sacks title at 20.7% on Kalshi. Here is why the market is right to price him first, and where the value sits.
Trey Hendrickson is priced at 10.3% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season sacks title. Here is why the market is underrating the league's snap-count king.
Aidan Hutchinson is priced at 10.2% on Kalshi to lead the NFL in sacks. Here is why the market is underrating the Lions edge and where the real value sits.
T.J. Watt is priced at 5.3% to lead the NFL in sacks on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating the only three-time sack champion in the field.
Will Anderson Jr. is priced at 5.1% to win the NFL regular-season sacks title on Kalshi. Here is why that implied probability is too low for Houston's edge.
Nik Bonitto sits at 4.1% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season sacks title. The Futures Desk makes the value case for Denver's rising edge rusher.
Brian Burns is priced at just 3.6% to win the NFL regular-season sacks title on Kalshi. Here is why that number undersells the Giants edge rusher.
Nick Bosa is priced at just 3.4% to win the NFL regular-season sacks title on Kalshi. Here is why the market is charging too little for a former champ.
Maxx Crosby is priced at 3.3% to win the NFL regular-season sacks title on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating his elite pressure volume.
Jonathan Greenard is priced at just 3.2% to win the NFL regular-season sacks title on Kalshi. Here is why that number undersells a Flores scheme edge.
Will McDonald IV is priced at just 3% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season sacks title. Here is why the market is charging too little for the Jets' rising edge.
Micah Parsons is priced at just 3% to win the NFL regular-season sacks title on Kalshi. Here is why that number underrates a scheme-and-motivation fit few see.
Tuli Tuipulotu is priced at just 1.5% to lead the NFL in sacks on Kalshi. Here is why the Chargers edge rusher is the sharpest longshot on the board.
Frequently asked
What are NFL futures on Kalshi?
NFL futures on Kalshi are season-long prediction markets where each contract pays out if a player wins an award or statistical title, such as MVP or the passing yards crown. The contract price is the market's implied probability of that outcome.
How do you read Kalshi implied odds?
A contract trading at 12 cents implies roughly a 12% chance of the outcome. We normalise each award's field so the contenders' probabilities sum to about 100%, which strips the market's built-in margin and makes players comparable.
How often are these futures articles updated?
The Four and Out Futures Desk publishes new player breakdowns daily through the start of the NFL season and refreshes existing ones as the Kalshi market moves, so the implied odds you read are current.