NFL player futures on Kalshi
The value case behind the season-long award markets. We turn live Kalshi prices into implied odds and find the contenders the market is underrating, refreshed daily through kickoff.
Kalshi market
NFL MVP
Lamar Jackson sits at 9.3% implied on Kalshi to win NFL MVP, tied for the market lead. Here is why that price is too low and where the field is wrong.
Josh Allen is priced at 9.3% for NFL MVP on Kalshi, tied atop the field with Lamar Jackson. Here is why the reigning MVP is quietly undervalued.
Joe Burrow's NFL MVP odds sit at 8.4% implied on Kalshi, third in the field. Here's why the market is underpricing the league's highest-volume passer.
Justin Herbert is priced at 8% for NFL MVP on Kalshi, fourth in the field. Here's the efficiency-and-rushing case the market is quietly underrating.
Caleb Williams is priced at 5.8% for NFL MVP on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating the highest-ceiling name in its 5.8% cluster.
Matthew Stafford is 5.8% implied to win NFL MVP on Kalshi. Here is why the Rams QB is underpriced against the field, and the market angle nobody is trading.
Patrick Mahomes is priced at 5.7% to win NFL MVP on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating the two-time winner against Jackson, Allen, Herbert and Burrow.
Drake Maye is priced at 5.7% for NFL MVP on Kalshi, tied with Mahomes and behind Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Here is why that number is too low.
Dak Prescott is priced at 4.8% to win NFL MVP on Kalshi. Why the market is anchoring on his 2024 injury and underrating a volume passer with a real ceiling.
Brock Purdy is priced at 4% to win NFL MVP on Kalshi. Here is the market-vs-narrative case for why that number underrates the 49ers quarterback.
Jayden Daniels sits at 3.1% for NFL MVP on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating Washington's dual-threat quarterback and where the real value lives.
Trevor Lawrence is priced at 3.1% to win NFL MVP on Kalshi. Here is why year two under Liam Coen makes that number too low, and where the real risk sits.
Kalshi market
NFL passing yards leader
Jared Goff sits second at 9.4% on Kalshi to win the NFL passing yards crown. Here is why Detroit's volume machine is undervalued behind Joe Burrow.
Joe Burrow sits at 7.9% on Kalshi to win the NFL passing yards crown. Here is why the market is underrating the league's most recent yardage leader.
Dak Prescott sits at 7.6% for the NFL passing yards crown on Kalshi. Why the Cowboys' volume, target concentration, and shootout scripts make him underpriced.
Jordan Love is priced at 5.3% to win the NFL passing yards crown on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating Green Bay's volume-and-explosive ceiling.
Trevor Lawrence is priced at 5.2% to win the NFL passing yards crown on Kalshi. Here is why Liam Coen's high-volume offense makes that number too cheap.
Cam Ward sits at 5% on Kalshi to win the NFL passing yards crown. Why the market underrates the Titans QB's clear path to league-leading volume.
Matthew Stafford is priced at just 4.7% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season passing yards crown. Here is why that number is too low for the field he faces.
Drake Maye's NFL passing yards crown odds are 4.7% on Kalshi. Here's why the market may underrate the Patriots QB's 2026 volume ceiling in a flat field.
Daniel Jones is 4.6% on Kalshi to win the NFL passing yards crown. Why the market's flat field undervalues his volume profile in Indianapolis.
Aaron Rodgers is priced at 4.6% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season passing yards crown. We read the value in a wide-open field and find an edge.
Geno Smith sits at 4.5% on Kalshi to win the NFL passing yards crown. Here's the volume case for why the Raiders QB is undervalued versus the field.
Tyler Shough sits at 4% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season passing yards crown. Here is why a wide-open, flat market is underrating the Saints rookie's volume.
Kalshi market
NFL rushing yards leader
Derrick Henry is the field-leading pick for the NFL rushing yards title at 12.4% on Kalshi. Here is why that price is closer to fair than cheap, and where the value sits.
Bijan Robinson sits at 11.1% on Kalshi to win the 2026 NFL rushing yards title. Here is why the market is underpricing the Falcons back and where the value lives.
Saquon Barkley is priced at 9.4% to win the NFL rushing title on Kalshi. Here is why the defending yards leader is undervalued as the field's fourth choice.
James Cook III is priced at 7.3% on Kalshi to win the NFL rushing yards title. Here is why Buffalo's volume shift makes the market's number too cautious.
Jonathan Taylor is priced at 6.9% to win the NFL rushing yards title on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating the league's purest bell-cow.
Jahmyr Gibbs is priced at 5.2% to win the NFL rushing yards title on Kalshi. Here is why the committee tax has the market underrating Detroit's home-run back.
Omarion Hampton is priced at 4.8% to win the NFL rushing title on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating a Harbaugh-Roman workhorse in year two.
Kenneth Walker III sits at just 3.2% for the NFL rushing yards title on Kalshi. Here is why Klint Kubiak's zone scheme makes that a mispriced long shot.
RJ Harvey sits at 3.2% to win the NFL regular-season rushing title on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underpricing Denver's lead back relative to the field.
De'Von Achane is priced at just 3% on Kalshi to win the NFL rushing yards title. Here is the usage-driven case that Miami's back is underpriced.
Javonte Williams is priced at 2.9% on Kalshi to win the NFL rushing yards title. Here is why the Cowboys' new bellcow is the field's most underpriced volume play.
Kalshi market
NFL receiving yards leader
Ja'Marr Chase is priced at 12.7% on Kalshi to win the NFL receiving yards title. Why the market's second-place tag undersells the league's best volume bet.
Puka Nacua leads the NFL receiving yards title field on Kalshi at 11.3% implied. Here is why the market is still underpricing the Rams' volume monster.
Mike Evans is priced at 5.6% on Kalshi to win the NFL receiving yards title. Our market-vs-narrative read on why the volume case is underrated.
Tetairoa McMillan is priced at 5.3% on Kalshi to win the NFL receiving yards title. Here is why the market is underrating Carolina's alpha in year two.
A.J. Brown is priced at just 4.7% to win the NFL receiving yards title on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating the Eagles' alpha target.
Justin Jefferson is priced at just 4.7% on Kalshi to win the NFL receiving yards title. Here is why the market is underrating the best route-runner alive.
CeeDee Lamb sits at 4.6% on Kalshi to win the 2026 NFL receiving yards title. Here is why the market is pricing a proven yardage champion like an afterthought.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is priced at 4.3% to win the NFL receiving yards title on Kalshi. Here is why that number is light in a wide-open field.
Amon-Ra St. Brown sits at 4.1% for the NFL receiving yards title on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating Detroit's most bankable target.
Garrett Wilson sits at 3.5% on Kalshi to win the NFL receiving yards title. Here is why the Jets' alpha target is underpriced against a scattered field.
Zay Flowers is priced at just 3.5% on Kalshi to win the NFL receiving yards title. Here is why Baltimore's target math makes that a market underreaction.
Tee Higgins is priced at 3.5% to win the NFL receiving yards title on Kalshi. Here is why that number underrates a healthy 17-game Higgins.
Kalshi market
NFL sacks leader
Myles Garrett is the Kalshi favorite to lead the NFL in sacks at 15.4% implied. Here's why the market still has the Browns star slightly too cheap.
Will Anderson Jr. is 14.8% implied on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season sacks title. Why the market has the wrong man as favorite, and where the value sits.
Jonathan Greenard is priced at 11.6% to win the NFL sacks title on Kalshi. Here is why Brian Flores's scheme makes the market's second favorite a live value.
Aidan Hutchinson is priced at 8.8% for the NFL regular-season sacks title on Kalshi. Here is why the market is underrating Detroit's healthy edge.
Maxx Crosby is priced at 7.5% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season sacks title. Here is the market-vs-narrative case for why that number is too low.
Trey Hendrickson sits at 5.7% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season sacks title, sixth in the field. Here is why the market underrates a proven sack champion.
T.J. Watt sits at 5.3% on Kalshi to win the NFL sacks title, seventh on the board. Why a three-time sack leader is underpriced behind the favorites.
Nick Bosa is priced at just 4.2% to win the NFL regular-season sacks title on Kalshi. Here is why Robert Saleh's scheme makes that number too low.
Micah Parsons is priced at just 3.2% to win the NFL sacks title on Kalshi. Here is why that number is too low for a rusher moved into a defense built to feed him.
Will McDonald IV is priced at just 3% on Kalshi to win the NFL regular-season sacks title. Here is why the market is charging too little for the Jets' rising edge.
Frequently asked
What are NFL futures on Kalshi?
NFL futures on Kalshi are season-long prediction markets where each contract pays out if a player wins an award or statistical title, such as MVP or the passing yards crown. The contract price is the market's implied probability of that outcome.
How do you read Kalshi implied odds?
A contract trading at 12 cents implies roughly a 12% chance of the outcome. We normalise each award's field so the contenders' probabilities sum to about 100%, which strips the market's built-in margin and makes players comparable.
How often are these futures articles updated?
The Four and Out Futures Desk publishes new player breakdowns daily through the start of the NFL season and refreshes existing ones as the Kalshi market moves, so the implied odds you read are current.