What Are Prediction Markets?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts tied to a future event. Each contract settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not, so the price (1¢ to 99¢) is a live, crowd-sourced read on the probability. Buy low, sell high, or hold to settlement.
Price equals probability
The core idea is simple: a contract trading at 60¢ means the market thinks the outcome is about 60% likely. As news breaks and money moves, the price updates instantly, which is why prediction-market prices often forecast outcomes more accurately than polls. On our Super Bowl odds page we convert live Kalshi prices into implied win probability for every team.
You trade, you do not just bet
- Two-sided. You can buy a Yes or a No on an outcome, and you trade against other participants.
- Exit any time. Sell your position as the price moves to lock in a gain or cut a loss before the event resolves.
- Settlement. When the event is decided, winning contracts pay $1 each and losing ones expire at $0.
Wondering how this compares to a casino? See are prediction markets gambling? Or how they stack up against a sportsbook in prediction markets vs sports betting and which platform wins in the best prediction markets. Ready to try it on football? Read how to trade the NFL on Kalshi.
Frequently asked
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets people trade contracts tied to the outcome of a future event. Each contract settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not, so its live price (between 1¢ and 99¢) is the market's estimate of the probability.
How do prediction markets make money?
You profit by buying a contract for less than it eventually settles at, or by selling a position after its price rises. You trade against other participants, and the platform runs the marketplace rather than taking the other side of every bet.
How do I read NFL prediction-market odds?
A team priced at 18¢ to win the Super Bowl implies roughly an 18% chance. Our odds page converts those live Kalshi prices into implied win probability for all 32 teams.
18+. Prediction-market availability and regulation vary by location; this page is general information, not financial advice. Contains an affiliate link to Kalshi. Trade responsibly.