Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Head to head

Super Bowl odds5.9%0.9%
Power rating9382
Contender tier

Preview

How it plays out

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins is a AFC East divisional clash between two teams that know each other cold. Our model makes Buffalo Bills a heavy favorite (89% to win, spread BUF -6.5). The power-ranking gap backs it up (#3 vs #18), and the contender tiers agree.

Tactically, Buffalo Bills will want to lean on balanced offense to attack Miami Dolphins, whose trench play is the obvious pressure point. Going the other way, Miami Dolphins's creative scheme could punish Buffalo Bills if secondary depth goes unaddressed. Whoever wins that exchange likely wins the game.

Keep an eye on Josh Allen (QB) and Tua Tagovailoa (QB): the two most likely to decide it with a single play. With Bills at home, the model already bakes in roughly a field-goal's worth of home-field edge.

Key players

BUF Bills

JAJosh Allen
Josh Allen
QB · MVP
JCJames Cook
James Cook
RB · Pro Bowl
KSKhalil Shakir
Khalil Shakir
WR · Slot

MIA Dolphins

TTTua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa
QB · Accuracy
THTyreek Hill
Tyreek Hill
WR · All-Pro
DADe'Von Achane
De'Von Achane
RB · Burner

Frequently asked

Who is favored in Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins?

Our model favors the Buffalo Bills, with a 89% win probability over the Miami Dolphins (11%). The projected spread is BUF -6.5.

What is the prediction for Bills vs Dolphins?

Our model favors Buffalo Bills (89%) over Miami Dolphins (11%), spread BUF -6.5: a clear mismatch on paper.

What are the moneyline odds for Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins?

Implied from our model's win probabilities, the Buffalo Bills are -809 and the Miami Dolphins are +809 on the moneyline.

Who are the key players to watch in Bills vs Dolphins?

Watch Josh Allen (QB) for the Bills and Tua Tagovailoa (QB) for the Dolphins.

Is Bills vs Dolphins a divisional game?

Yes. Both the Bills and Dolphins play in the AFC East, so this is a division matchup with playoff-seeding and tiebreaker stakes.