Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Head to head

Super Bowl odds5.9%4.1%
Power rating9380
Contender tier

Preview

How it plays out

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots is a AFC East rivalry game, the kind where the records can go out the window. On paper this is about as lopsided as it gets: Buffalo Bills at 91% to New England Patriots's 9%, spread BUF -7.5. The power-ranking gap backs it up (#3 vs #23), and the contender tiers agree.

Tactically, Buffalo Bills will want to lean on aggressive front to attack New England Patriots, whose offensive line is the obvious pressure point. Going the other way, New England Patriots's promising young QB could punish Buffalo Bills if no true WR1 goes unaddressed. It is the kind of trade-off decided in the margins: third down, the trenches, and the turnover battle.

Keep an eye on Josh Allen (QB) and Drake Maye (QB): the two most likely to decide it with a single play. Home field tilts the margin toward Bills, and in a game this close that edge matters.

Key players

BUF Bills

JAJosh Allen
Josh Allen
QB · MVP
JCJames Cook
James Cook
RB · Pro Bowl
KSKhalil Shakir
Khalil Shakir
WR · Slot

NE Patriots

DMDrake Maye
Drake Maye
QB · Franchise hope
RSRhamondre Stevenson
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB · Workhorse
CGChristian Gonzalez
Christian Gonzalez
CB · All-Pro

Frequently asked

Who is favored in Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots?

Our model favors the Buffalo Bills, with a 91% win probability over the New England Patriots (9%). The projected spread is BUF -7.5.

What is the prediction for Bills vs Patriots?

Our model favors Buffalo Bills (91%) over New England Patriots (9%), spread BUF -7.5: a clear mismatch on paper.

What are the moneyline odds for Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots?

Implied from our model's win probabilities, the Buffalo Bills are -1011 and the New England Patriots are +1011 on the moneyline.

Who are the key players to watch in Bills vs Patriots?

Watch Josh Allen (QB) for the Bills and Drake Maye (QB) for the Patriots.

Is Bills vs Patriots a divisional game?

Yes. Both the Bills and Patriots play in the AFC East, so this is a division matchup with playoff-seeding and tiebreaker stakes.