Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots

Head to head

Super Bowl odds1.4%4.1%
Power rating8680
Contender tier

Preview

How it plays out

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots is an inter-conference matchup: the NFC Buccaneers hosting the AFC Patriots. Our model makes Tampa Bay Buccaneers a heavy favorite (79% to win, spread TB -4.5). The power-ranking gap backs it up (#11 vs #23), and January football rarely respects the standings.

Tactically, Tampa Bay Buccaneers will want to lean on steady QB play to attack New England Patriots, whose wR talent is the obvious pressure point. Going the other way, New England Patriots's promising young QB could punish Tampa Bay Buccaneers if aging core goes unaddressed. Whoever wins that exchange likely wins the game.

Keep an eye on Baker Mayfield (QB) and Drake Maye (QB): the two most likely to decide it with a single play. With Buccaneers at home, the model already bakes in roughly a field-goal's worth of home-field edge.

Key players

TB Buccaneers

BMBaker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield
QB · Pro Bowl
MEMike Evans
Mike Evans
WR · 1,000-yd streak
LDLavonte David
Lavonte David
LB · Veteran

NE Patriots

DMDrake Maye
Drake Maye
QB · Franchise hope
RSRhamondre Stevenson
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB · Workhorse
CGChristian Gonzalez
Christian Gonzalez
CB · All-Pro

Frequently asked

Who is favored in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots?

Our model favors the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with a 79% win probability over the New England Patriots (21%). The projected spread is TB -4.5.

What is the prediction for Buccaneers vs Patriots?

Our model favors Tampa Bay Buccaneers (79%) over New England Patriots (21%), spread TB -4.5: a clear mismatch on paper.

What are the moneyline odds for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots?

Implied from our model's win probabilities, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are -376 and the New England Patriots are +376 on the moneyline.

Who are the key players to watch in Buccaneers vs Patriots?

Watch Baker Mayfield (QB) for the Buccaneers and Drake Maye (QB) for the Patriots.

Is Buccaneers vs Patriots a divisional game?

No. It is an inter-conference matchup between the NFC Buccaneers and the AFC Patriots.