Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills
Head to head
Preview
How it plays out
Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills is an all-AFC matchup with seeding on the line. Our model makes Buffalo Bills a heavy favorite (88% to win, spread BUF -6.5). The power-ranking gap backs it up (#25 vs #3), and the contender tiers agree.
Tactically, Indianapolis Colts will want to lean on bell-cow back to attack Buffalo Bills, whose secondary depth is the obvious pressure point. Going the other way, Buffalo Bills's dual-threat MVP could punish Indianapolis Colts if pass rush goes unaddressed. Whoever wins that exchange likely wins the game.
Keep an eye on Michael Pittman Jr. (WR) and Josh Allen (QB): the two most likely to decide it with a single play. With Colts at home, the model already bakes in roughly a field-goal's worth of home-field edge.
Key players
Colts
Bills
Frequently asked
Who is favored in Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills?
Our model favors the Buffalo Bills, with a 88% win probability over the Indianapolis Colts (12%). The projected spread is BUF -6.5.
What is the prediction for Colts vs Bills?
Our model favors Buffalo Bills (88%) over Indianapolis Colts (12%), spread BUF -6.5: a clear mismatch on paper.
What are the moneyline odds for Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills?
Implied from our model's win probabilities, the Indianapolis Colts are +733 and the Buffalo Bills are -733 on the moneyline.
Who are the key players to watch in Colts vs Bills?
Watch Jonathan Taylor (RB) for the Colts and Josh Allen (QB) for the Bills.
Is Colts vs Bills a divisional game?
No. It is an AFC inter-divisional game (AFC South vs AFC East), not a division rivalry.