Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills

Head to head

Super Bowl odds1.4%5.9%
Power rating7793
Contender tier

Preview

How it plays out

Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills is an all-AFC matchup with seeding on the line. Our model makes Buffalo Bills a heavy favorite (88% to win, spread BUF -6.5). The power-ranking gap backs it up (#25 vs #3), and the contender tiers agree.

Tactically, Indianapolis Colts will want to lean on bell-cow back to attack Buffalo Bills, whose secondary depth is the obvious pressure point. Going the other way, Buffalo Bills's dual-threat MVP could punish Indianapolis Colts if pass rush goes unaddressed. Whoever wins that exchange likely wins the game.

Keep an eye on Michael Pittman Jr. (WR) and Josh Allen (QB): the two most likely to decide it with a single play. With Colts at home, the model already bakes in roughly a field-goal's worth of home-field edge.

Key players

IND Colts

JTJonathan Taylor
Jonathan Taylor
RB · All-Pro
MPMichael Pittman Jr.
Michael Pittman Jr.
WR · Possession
DBDeForest Buckner
DeForest Buckner
DT · All-Pro

BUF Bills

JAJosh Allen
Josh Allen
QB · MVP
JCJames Cook
James Cook
RB · Pro Bowl
KSKhalil Shakir
Khalil Shakir
WR · Slot

Frequently asked

Who is favored in Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills?

Our model favors the Buffalo Bills, with a 88% win probability over the Indianapolis Colts (12%). The projected spread is BUF -6.5.

What is the prediction for Colts vs Bills?

Our model favors Buffalo Bills (88%) over Indianapolis Colts (12%), spread BUF -6.5: a clear mismatch on paper.

What are the moneyline odds for Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills?

Implied from our model's win probabilities, the Indianapolis Colts are +733 and the Buffalo Bills are -733 on the moneyline.

Who are the key players to watch in Colts vs Bills?

Watch Jonathan Taylor (RB) for the Colts and Josh Allen (QB) for the Bills.

Is Colts vs Bills a divisional game?

No. It is an AFC inter-divisional game (AFC South vs AFC East), not a division rivalry.