Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Head to head

Super Bowl odds0.9%5.8%
Power rating8293
Contender tier

Preview

How it plays out

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills is a AFC East divisional clash between two teams that know each other cold. Our model makes Buffalo Bills a heavy favorite (79% to win, spread BUF -4.5). The power-ranking gap backs it up (#18 vs #3), and the contender tiers agree.

Tactically, Miami Dolphins will want to lean on quick-strike offense to attack Buffalo Bills, whose no true WR1 is the obvious pressure point. Going the other way, Buffalo Bills's balanced offense could punish Miami Dolphins if trench play goes unaddressed. Expect both staffs, Mike McDaniel and Sean McDermott, to script around exactly that battle.

Keep an eye on Tua Tagovailoa (QB) and Josh Allen (QB): the two most likely to decide it with a single play. With Dolphins at home, the model already bakes in roughly a field-goal's worth of home-field edge.

Key players

MIA Dolphins

TTTua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa
QB · Accuracy
THTyreek Hill
Tyreek Hill
WR · All-Pro
DADe'Von Achane
De'Von Achane
RB · Burner

BUF Bills

JAJosh Allen
Josh Allen
QB · MVP
JCJames Cook
James Cook
RB · Pro Bowl
KSKhalil Shakir
Khalil Shakir
WR · Slot

Frequently asked

Who is favored in Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills?

Our model favors the Buffalo Bills, with a 79% win probability over the Miami Dolphins (21%). The projected spread is BUF -4.5.

What is the prediction for Dolphins vs Bills?

Our model favors Buffalo Bills (79%) over Miami Dolphins (21%), spread BUF -4.5: a clear mismatch on paper.

What are the moneyline odds for Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills?

Implied from our model's win probabilities, the Miami Dolphins are +376 and the Buffalo Bills are -376 on the moneyline.

Who are the key players to watch in Dolphins vs Bills?

Watch Tua Tagovailoa (QB) for the Dolphins and Josh Allen (QB) for the Bills.

Is Dolphins vs Bills a divisional game?

Yes. Both the Dolphins and Bills play in the AFC East, so this is a division matchup with playoff-seeding and tiebreaker stakes.