Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Head to head

Super Bowl odds1.4%1.4%
Power rating7986
Contender tier

Preview

How it plays out

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a NFC South divisional clash between two teams that know each other cold. Our model leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers's way (67% to 33%, TB -2.5), but Atlanta Falcons are live enough to make it interesting.

Tactically, Atlanta Falcons will want to lean on elite running back to attack Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose aging core is the obvious pressure point. Going the other way, Tampa Bay Buccaneers's steady QB play could punish Atlanta Falcons if pass rush goes unaddressed. Whoever wins that exchange likely wins the game.

Keep an eye on Michael Penix Jr. (QB) and Baker Mayfield (QB): the two most likely to decide it with a single play. With Falcons at home, the model already bakes in roughly a field-goal's worth of home-field edge.

Key players

ATL Falcons

BRBijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson
RB · All-Pro
DLDrake London
Drake London
WR · Ascending
MPMichael Penix Jr.
Michael Penix Jr.
QB · Big arm

TB Buccaneers

BMBaker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield
QB · Pro Bowl
MEMike Evans
Mike Evans
WR · 1,000-yd streak
LDLavonte David
Lavonte David
LB · Veteran

Frequently asked

Who is favored in Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

Our model favors the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with a 67% win probability over the Atlanta Falcons (33%). The projected spread is TB -2.5.

What is the prediction for Falcons vs Buccaneers?

Our model favors Tampa Bay Buccaneers (67%) over Atlanta Falcons (33%), spread TB -2.5: a lean rather than a lock.

What are the moneyline odds for Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

Implied from our model's win probabilities, the Atlanta Falcons are +203 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are -203 on the moneyline.

Who are the key players to watch in Falcons vs Buccaneers?

Watch Bijan Robinson (RB) for the Falcons and Baker Mayfield (QB) for the Buccaneers.

Is Falcons vs Buccaneers a divisional game?

Yes. Both the Falcons and Buccaneers play in the NFC South, so this is a division matchup with playoff-seeding and tiebreaker stakes.