New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Head to head

Super Bowl odds4%0.9%
Power rating8082
Contender tier

Preview

How it plays out

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins is a AFC East divisional clash between two teams that know each other cold. Our model can barely split them: New England Patriots 51%, Miami Dolphins 49% (PK).

Tactically, New England Patriots will want to lean on promising young QB to attack Miami Dolphins, whose toughness in cold is the obvious pressure point. Going the other way, Miami Dolphins's quick-strike offense could punish New England Patriots if wR talent goes unaddressed. Whoever wins that exchange likely wins the game.

Keep an eye on Drake Maye (QB) and Tua Tagovailoa (QB): the two most likely to decide it with a single play. With Patriots at home, the model already bakes in roughly a field-goal's worth of home-field edge.

Key players

NE Patriots

DMDrake Maye
Drake Maye
QB · Franchise hope
RSRhamondre Stevenson
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB · Workhorse
CGChristian Gonzalez
Christian Gonzalez
CB · All-Pro

MIA Dolphins

TTTua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa
QB · Accuracy
THTyreek Hill
Tyreek Hill
WR · All-Pro
DADe'Von Achane
De'Von Achane
RB · Burner

Frequently asked

Who is favored in New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins?

Our model favors the New England Patriots, with a 51% win probability over the Miami Dolphins (49%). The projected spread is PK.

What is the prediction for Patriots vs Dolphins?

Our model favors New England Patriots (51%) over Miami Dolphins (49%), spread PK: effectively a toss-up.

What are the moneyline odds for New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins?

Implied from our model's win probabilities, the New England Patriots are -104 and the Miami Dolphins are +104 on the moneyline.

Who are the key players to watch in Patriots vs Dolphins?

Watch Drake Maye (QB) for the Patriots and Tua Tagovailoa (QB) for the Dolphins.

Is Patriots vs Dolphins a divisional game?

Yes. Both the Patriots and Dolphins play in the AFC East, so this is a division matchup with playoff-seeding and tiebreaker stakes.