Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Head to head

Super Bowl odds3.2%2.3%
Power rating8778
Contender tier

Preview

How it plays out

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars is a AFC South rivalry game, the kind where the records can go out the window. On paper this is about as lopsided as it gets: Houston Texans at 85% to Jacksonville Jaguars's 15%, spread HOU -5.5. The power-ranking gap backs it up (#10 vs #24), and the contender tiers agree.

Tactically, Houston Texans will want to lean on young core to attack Jacksonville Jaguars, whose run defense is the obvious pressure point. Going the other way, Jacksonville Jaguars's big-armed QB could punish Houston Texans if run game goes unaddressed. Expect both staffs, DeMeco Ryans and Liam Coen, to script around exactly that battle.

Keep an eye on C.J. Stroud (QB) and Trevor Lawrence (QB): the two most likely to decide it with a single play. Texans get the home crowd, worth a few points of swing before kickoff.

Key players

HOU Texans

CSC.J. Stroud
C.J. Stroud
QB · Pro Bowl
NCNico Collins
Nico Collins
WR · Ascending
WAWill Anderson Jr.
Will Anderson Jr.
EDGE · All-Pro

JAX Jaguars

TLTrevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence
QB · Former No. 1
BTBrian Thomas Jr.
Brian Thomas Jr.
WR · Star rookie
JHJosh Hines-Allen
Josh Hines-Allen
EDGE · All-Pro

Frequently asked

Who is favored in Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars?

Our model favors the Houston Texans, with a 85% win probability over the Jacksonville Jaguars (15%). The projected spread is HOU -5.5.

What is the prediction for Texans vs Jaguars?

Our model favors Houston Texans (85%) over Jacksonville Jaguars (15%), spread HOU -5.5: a clear mismatch on paper.

What are the moneyline odds for Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars?

Implied from our model's win probabilities, the Houston Texans are -567 and the Jacksonville Jaguars are +567 on the moneyline.

Who are the key players to watch in Texans vs Jaguars?

Watch C.J. Stroud (QB) for the Texans and Trevor Lawrence (QB) for the Jaguars.

Is Texans vs Jaguars a divisional game?

Yes. Both the Texans and Jaguars play in the AFC South, so this is a division matchup with playoff-seeding and tiebreaker stakes.